Starting with the biggest story of the night: Donald Trump pulled off a huge upset in the presidential race, winning states formerly thought unwinnable like Wisconsin (and probably Michigan, although votes are still being tallied), and most swing states including Iowa, Pennsylvania, Ohio and North Carolina.
Trump won for several reasons. First, Trump outperformed presidential candidate Mitt Romney by two percent among Hispanic and blacks. Second, Trump outperformed Romney by five percent among men, which was enough to overcome his losing to Hillary Clinton among women by 12 percent. While nearly 10 percent of Democrats voted for Trump, only three percent of Republicans voted for Clinton. Trump also won the independent vote 48 percent to 42 percent.
Ultimately, while Trump lost the popular vote, he won the electoral college because he beat Clinton in swing states.
This appears to be good news for agriculture from a regulatory standpoint as Trump, unlike Clinton, says he will eliminate the Waters of the U.S. rule that could markedly expand NPDES pesticide general permits (PGPs) for pesticide applications, including aerial application. Trump also supports the Renewable Fuel Standard, wants to lower the tax rate on family farms, and wants to eliminate the estate tax. He has also said he will review (and likely change) implementation of the Endangered Species Act to help farmers and applicators alike. Expanding agricultural markets due to the implementation of new trade agreements was a loss for agriculture either way since both Trump and Clinton oppose potential agreements with Asia, such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement.
It’s unclear who Trump will pick to head the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), but some names being floated for the top spot are Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback, Nebraska Gov. Dave Heineman, former Georgia Gov. Sonny Perdue and former Texas Gov. Rick Perry among others.
As far as the EPA is concerned, Trump could tap Myron Ebell, an official at a libertarian think tank called the “Competitive Enterprise Institute,” Joe Aiello, director of the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection’s Division of Environmental Safety and Quality Assurance, or Leslie Rutledge, the attorney general of Arkansas.
Regarding the Supreme Court, Trump will likely appoint a conservative justice to take right-leaning Justice Scalia’s place. If that happens, the highest court in the land will lean right. Justice Ginsburg, a left-leaning justice nominated by President Bill Clinton, has said she will resign if Trump is elected. This bodes well for farmers and applicators when it comes to rulings about environmental issues like the Clean Water Act.
Republicans also did better than expected in the Senate, and now hold 51 of 100 seats with two seats yet to be determined. New Hampshire is too close to call with Democrat Maggie Hassan beating incumbent Republican Kelly Ayotte by just 716 votes, meaning there will likely be a recount. Louisiana will have a runoff election to decide its next Senator. In December, Republican John Kennedy will face off against Democrat Foster Campbell and it’s unclear who will win. NAAA ally and Republican Senator Roy Blunt of Missouri won with just 49 percent of the vote.
Republicans also held onto the House of Representatives, which they now control with 239 Republicans to 192 Democrats, compared to 246 Republicans to 186 Democrats today. Four House races are still too close to call. 2016 proved to be a great election year for agriculture.
Now, NAAA will begin working to make sure the candidates keep their many agricultural campaign promises in 2017.
